Gay Marriage Opponents Now in Minority

A poll from CNN this week is the latest to show a majority of Americans in favor of same-sex marriage, with 51 percent saying that marriages between gay and lesbian couples "should be recognized by the law as valid" and 47 percent opposed. This is the fourth credible poll in the past eight months to show an outright majority of Americans in favor of gay marriage. That represents quite a lot of pr...

FiveThirtyEight • Apr 21, 2011

Will Gay Marriage, Once Again, Become a Campaign Issue?

Were Barack Obama to have the opportunity to replace a conservative Justice with a liberal one, or an incoming Republican President in 2013 the reverse, that would probably be decisive for the issue, perhaps for many decades. My best guess is that the Tea Party will largely continue to shirk the issue, but that the Republican Establishment will be fairly happy to engage it. The real battle, howev...

FiveThirtyEight • Aug 7, 2010

Gay Marriage Chart-of-the-Day

Although the past year has been frustrating to liberals and libertarians on many levels, one exception is in the increasing willingness of governments around the world to recognize same-sex marriage, as Argentina determined to do yesterday. There are now about 250 million people worldwide living in jurisdictions which provide for marriage equity, as this colorful chart will help to demonstrate....

FiveThirtyEight • Jul 15, 2010

Maine Revisited: Is There a Backlash Against Same-Sex Marriage?

What that means is that there's a "swing vote" of about 10 percent of the electorate that is not yet ready to allow gay marriage, but is also not willing to ban it (at least not Constitutionally). This is enough to tip the national balance on the question of gay marriage....

FiveThirtyEight • Dec 5, 2009

How To Get 63% of Americans to Support Equal Marriage. (Maybe.)

Would changing these few little words have made a difference last November? Probably not. But advocates for same-sex marriage can do a better job of framing their argument. Generally speaking, appeals to government noninterference are fairly popular; people don't like government telling them what they do and they don't have the right to do. Posit equal treatment under the law as the default -- how...

FiveThirtyEight • Jun 11, 2009

Prop 8 Myths

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FiveThirtyEight • Nov 11, 2008