Supporters of the repeal initiative face a deadline today to submit valid signatures of 694,354 registered California voters to county registrars of voters. They have declined to say how many signatures they believe they have collected.

Gay-rights activists not involved in the effort but sympathetic to it say they have seen little evidence of sufficient activity to make it happen.

"I think they're going to fall far short," said Fred Karger, president of Californians Against Hate. "It's just one group that is doing it without any resources, which is too bad."

Some analysts say the anger and energy that translated into large protests after the November 2008 election seems to have dissipated.

"It seems to me that whatever momentum came over the anger after the passage of Prop. 8 is gone," said Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a senior scholar at the University of Southern California School of Policy, Planning and Development. "I could be wrong, but I don't see any visible signs of it."