The political consequences of the case haven't gotten much attention, but they may be very important. Particularly if the plaintiffs win, but perhaps in any case, it is going to be very difficult to rally the LGBT community and its progressive allies to go back to the ballot in California while the case is still going on. People are not going to want to invest lots of time and money in an electoral battle that the courts may make irrelevant. And the case could be going on for some time. If Judge Walker does issue his decision sometime in the next few months, the earliest we'd likely see a decision from the Ninth Circuit would be the spring of 2012 (the Court could expedite the case, but that doesn't seem likely). A Supreme Court decision would likely come nine months to a year later.

But if the case is likely to put a damper on things in California, it ought to be a spur to action elsewhere. As I said above, history tells us that the more states that have marriage, the better the odds are at the Supreme Court. We're not going to get to 30 or 35 by 2012, but it would be good if we picked up a few more. Maybe more important, the more it seems like the country is ready for marriage, and it's just the political process that is jammed, the better our chances with the Court. So any significant progress helps, and the higher the profile the better. 2013 may seem like a long way off to the folks who brought the San Francisco marriage case and the folks who want to go back to the ballot in California. But in terms of making the kind of progress that might help us win at the Supreme Court, it's tomorrow.