In conversations with gay activists on both coasts last week, I heard several theories as to why Obama has seemed alternately clumsy and foot-dragging in honoring his campaign commitments to dismantle DOMA and Don't Ask Don't Tell. The most charitable take had it that he was following a deliberate strategy, given his habit of pursuing his goals through long-term game plans. After all, he's only five months into his term and must first juggle two wars, the cratered economy, health care and Iran. Some speculated that the president is fearful of crossing preachers, especially black preachers, who are adamantly opposed to same-sex marriage. Still others said that the president was tone-deaf on the issue because his inner White House circle lacks any known gay people.

But the most prevalent theory is that Obama, surrounded by Clinton White House alumni with painful memories, doesn't want to risk gay issues upending his presidency, as they did his predecessor's in 1993. After having promised to lift the ban on gays in the military, Clinton beat a hasty retreat into Don't Ask once Congress and the Pentagon rebelled. This early pratfall became a lasting symbol of his chaotic management style -- and a precursor to another fiasco, Hillarycare, that Obama is also working hard not to emulate.