"The turn in 2010 is going to be markedly negative for them," said Frank Schubert, the Sacramento political consultant who ran the Yes on 8 campaign last year, and who would head a 2010 campaign to uphold Proposition 8.

Schubert predicts at least a third of the 2008 electorate, particularly those young, first-time voters who turned out to vote for Barack Obama, won't show up at the polls in 2010. "They are not going to show up to vote for Gavin Newsom or Jerry Brown," he said of two potential Democratic gubernatorial nominees for 2010.